* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 30 34 39 41 45 45 44 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 30 30 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 21 25 26 27 27 30 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 6 3 4 6 13 21 20 24 31 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 2 -2 4 1 1 2 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 310 303 246 277 336 255 277 266 285 269 277 265 282 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 27.2 28.0 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 130 122 119 128 126 120 125 136 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 125 117 110 106 114 111 107 111 120 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 9 11 8 13 10 15 13 18 13 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 73 72 74 75 71 64 57 52 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 54 72 72 53 51 37 29 -3 -6 -6 2 200 MB DIV 29 50 72 54 47 53 39 67 39 36 20 13 29 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -3 -3 0 0 4 11 15 13 18 39 LAND (KM) 119 106 81 23 -19 -111 -159 -122 -72 20 78 215 153 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.9 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.5 96.2 96.8 98.0 98.9 99.0 98.5 97.6 96.5 95.0 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 5 2 1 2 4 1 4 9 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 21. 25. 25. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.6 94.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 18.3% 9.1% 1.9% 0.5% 5.5% 10.9% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 21.1% Consensus: 1.1% 6.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% 3.7% 11.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 30 30 29 25 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 22 24 24 25 25 28 28 27 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 17 19 19 20 20 23 23 22 18 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT