* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 29 35 42 45 47 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 3 5 3 2 1 5 5 2 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 7 3 5 2 9 SHEAR DIR 270 293 300 248 223 38 181 197 232 324 247 341 20 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.1 26.3 26.1 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 27.1 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 139 124 115 113 118 113 110 109 111 122 125 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 127 113 104 102 106 101 97 96 98 108 110 107 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 11 7 9 6 9 7 11 10 15 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 72 73 72 72 73 69 68 62 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 82 84 90 102 90 97 89 80 61 61 50 200 MB DIV 45 38 31 36 50 51 72 52 64 49 52 24 29 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 -3 1 0 4 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 117 54 -18 -87 -156 -276 -235 -200 -212 -263 -273 -207 -136 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.8 96.6 97.3 98.0 99.2 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.5 99.8 99.2 98.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 25. 27. 32. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.7 94.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 22.3% 14.8% 6.9% 1.7% 14.1% 10.9% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 17.6% Consensus: 1.2% 7.6% 5.0% 2.3% 0.6% 4.8% 3.7% 11.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/02/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 18 20 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT