* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 39 45 49 52 57 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 6 2 1 3 1 2 6 1 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3 3 0 0 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 301 273 291 315 241 261 156 230 220 291 253 283 277 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.1 26.9 26.1 26.5 26.4 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 137 122 114 117 115 111 110 109 114 124 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 126 111 103 106 103 99 97 96 101 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 8 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 71 72 72 72 71 68 65 62 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 68 78 95 90 98 89 96 79 82 62 58 31 200 MB DIV 50 64 56 51 57 46 44 69 53 61 56 32 21 700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 -3 -2 -9 -1 -5 0 2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 154 113 45 -33 -111 -255 -238 -180 -187 -226 -310 -246 -191 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.4 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.0 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.9 99.9 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.5 99.8 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 25. 29. 32. 37. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.7 94.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 49.4% 35.6% 19.6% 7.8% 30.3% 30.3% 37.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 59.3% Consensus: 3.3% 16.9% 12.0% 6.6% 2.6% 10.3% 10.3% 32.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT