* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 06/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 20 23 28 35 43 47 49 50 49 51 V (KT) LAND 15 18 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 15 18 19 20 21 20 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 8 11 7 7 7 11 9 9 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 -1 2 0 -1 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 304 308 285 254 242 280 228 239 213 211 204 224 226 SST (C) 30.7 29.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 26.8 26.7 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 164 150 150 152 122 120 112 106 100 98 99 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 155 140 139 141 113 110 101 95 88 87 87 88 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 9 11 6 8 5 7 6 10 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 65 67 68 70 73 69 68 64 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 63 64 66 91 82 103 77 88 72 71 60 200 MB DIV 40 45 36 48 71 63 61 37 54 37 60 53 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 1 3 -5 -4 -8 -6 0 0 6 0 LAND (KM) -6 98 157 203 176 -34 -212 -257 -234 -215 -251 -287 -344 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.7 20.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.7 92.7 93.7 94.7 96.9 98.8 100.6 101.8 102.6 102.6 102.3 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 5 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 24 16 17 16 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 1. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 28. 32. 34. 35. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 19.4 90.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 06/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.6% 58.9% 45.6% 33.9% 16.4% 43.4% 48.8% 37.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 5.0% 2.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 20.7% Consensus: 9.4% 21.3% 16.0% 12.2% 5.6% 14.6% 16.4% 19.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 06/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 06/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 18 20 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT