* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 17 17 18 22 28 33 V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 26 26 28 26 24 24 23 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 25 26 25 21 19 17 18 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 36 47 48 37 36 24 32 22 22 16 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 0 4 4 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 300 290 287 289 300 291 311 334 3 348 16 340 357 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 146 144 141 142 151 151 146 146 144 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 138 136 133 130 130 136 136 130 128 125 130 128 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 74 76 74 70 68 68 68 69 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 0 -22 -28 -9 1 16 43 94 116 110 76 200 MB DIV 7 28 49 12 -9 20 8 14 -9 28 31 31 14 700-850 TADV 7 2 -1 -6 -4 -1 -11 -12 0 -9 2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 47 -49 -119 -122 -29 183 377 306 95 -50 -183 -285 -397 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.8 22.3 23.4 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 88.0 88.6 89.3 90.0 91.4 92.9 94.7 96.8 98.3 99.6 100.6 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 65 65 21 23 18 27 32 18 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -22. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -3. 3. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 87.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 25 26 26 28 26 24 24 23 26 26 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 29 27 25 25 24 27 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 22 20 20 19 22 22 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT