* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 50 58 61 58 51 42 35 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 50 58 61 58 51 42 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 35 36 39 47 57 59 57 55 52 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 29 26 24 20 11 20 28 36 30 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 8 8 0 SHEAR DIR 283 285 283 287 281 272 266 284 290 295 305 298 291 SST (C) 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.3 19.9 18.6 17.8 14.0 11.2 18.4 18.4 20.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 82 81 81 80 79 77 77 71 66 76 80 89 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 74 73 73 72 73 68 64 70 76 86 93 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.9 -57.6 -58.3 -58.9 -59.8 -60.4 -59.2 -58.4 -57.7 -57.9 -56.2 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 58 59 57 49 54 47 44 38 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 17 18 21 21 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 175 167 162 153 138 163 163 184 144 94 88 91 117 200 MB DIV -19 6 18 6 19 21 11 12 -16 -35 -37 -47 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 6 15 1 7 4 8 9 0 0 LAND (KM) 1997 2045 2061 2037 1974 1706 1282 771 561 722 1157 1793 2331 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.8 31.1 31.8 32.8 35.6 38.9 41.5 41.8 40.2 36.3 31.0 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 41.2 40.2 39.3 38.7 39.0 41.5 46.7 51.4 53.5 52.4 48.3 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 12 16 23 21 14 13 27 31 31 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -16. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 27. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -5. -5. -7. -11. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 26. 23. 16. 7. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.9 42.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.09 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 43 50 58 61 58 51 42 35 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 41 48 56 59 56 49 40 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 43 51 54 51 44 35 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 36 44 47 44 37 28 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT