* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 53 48 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 53 48 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 52 49 44 37 30 25 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 31 23 19 40 51 50 41 37 22 2 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 1 0 -3 -9 -3 -1 1 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 267 283 289 317 11 23 10 6 16 48 181 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 22.7 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.5 21.5 20.0 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 89 87 87 86 84 83 83 83 84 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 79 78 77 76 74 73 72 74 76 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.9 -58.3 -58.4 -58.1 -57.8 -57.2 -56.5 -56.8 -56.9 -57.6 -58.1 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 43 45 47 46 38 36 38 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 27 27 25 22 17 14 11 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 25 12 -10 -19 -3 -8 -30 -69 -95 -88 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 8 32 51 43 -14 -38 -69 -49 -35 21 28 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 5 0 1 0 0 6 3 3 -29 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1464 1363 1262 1173 1088 927 805 744 694 728 856 828 614 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.4 31.2 31.2 32.0 33.7 36.1 39.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.0 26.8 25.6 24.5 23.4 21.5 20.3 19.7 19.1 18.9 18.9 18.1 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 4 3 3 7 10 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -25. -29. -32. -29. -30. -32. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -15. -20. -26. -31. -34. -36. -35. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -17. -33. -45. -57. -65. -67. -68. -68. -68. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.7 28.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 53 53 48 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 48 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 46 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT