* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 58 59 59 61 60 61 57 52 45 36 28 23 20 16 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 58 59 59 61 60 61 57 52 45 33 31 25 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 57 57 60 64 66 64 61 56 48 34 32 28 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 18 12 6 10 8 16 13 21 23 32 39 42 43 41 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 1 4 1 3 3 3 1 5 5 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 249 275 309 319 312 333 309 302 255 272 245 290 283 281 264 260 254 SST (C) 27.7 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.0 26.8 25.9 23.1 22.0 23.3 27.0 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 111 120 130 141 141 136 126 121 119 111 90 85 93 124 123 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 101 107 117 125 120 117 108 103 102 95 80 76 82 106 105 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -56.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 56 57 56 58 59 58 53 46 43 41 41 47 43 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 21 21 20 21 20 21 20 18 15 12 9 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 174 158 143 154 134 92 102 59 32 26 32 30 -8 -54 -108 -91 -87 200 MB DIV 75 16 -1 -2 -15 -16 13 -10 5 -2 -5 -45 -29 -4 55 70 33 700-850 TADV 6 2 -4 0 1 0 0 7 1 5 0 1 5 16 18 21 6 LAND (KM) 95 33 103 212 200 183 293 293 230 166 93 46 -94 49 131 155 153 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.3 24.9 24.4 23.9 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.8 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.3 82.4 83.4 84.4 85.1 85.2 85.0 84.7 84.3 83.8 83.2 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 7 2 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 0 12 20 86 80 34 18 11 5 0 0 0 0 39 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 6. 2. -3. -10. -19. -27. -32. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 80.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.6% 14.4% 12.3% 10.9% 13.2% 13.2% 11.5% Logistic: 1.4% 6.4% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.9% 6.0% 4.4% 3.7% 4.9% 4.9% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 58 59 59 61 60 61 57 52 45 33 31 25 23 19 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 56 56 58 57 58 54 49 42 30 28 22 20 16 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 53 55 54 55 51 46 39 27 25 19 17 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 46 48 47 48 44 39 32 20 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT