* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 58 58 60 64 65 66 70 76 80 87 88 81 73 71 72 V (KT) LAND 70 51 41 35 31 28 27 31 35 41 40 45 46 40 31 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 51 40 34 31 28 27 31 36 39 39 36 34 32 33 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 8 6 3 8 15 21 27 30 18 17 16 14 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 2 2 2 0 8 6 7 8 2 0 -4 5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 65 49 48 89 81 148 201 236 248 256 252 241 289 342 342 354 286 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 158 155 160 153 153 157 158 154 147 134 133 138 137 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 157 154 150 151 143 145 150 153 144 130 116 115 120 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 5 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 81 81 76 78 75 73 68 62 57 55 56 54 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 20 18 17 14 15 17 19 23 26 28 29 25 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 129 139 149 157 152 119 107 133 133 147 169 177 157 157 110 70 22 200 MB DIV 132 126 159 167 125 76 98 122 80 60 66 58 31 -20 -32 -4 -14 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 6 0 0 0 3 3 3 16 8 10 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) -87 -167 -212 -153 -112 -44 -46 53 158 213 -4 78 63 86 191 278 370 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.4 18.3 19.9 22.1 23.7 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.0 85.8 86.6 87.4 89.1 89.3 87.7 86.1 83.9 81.6 80.6 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 6 6 9 11 14 12 7 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 6 7 10 38 47 43 55 79 86 67 39 25 26 28 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -10. -13. -13. -11. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -12. -8. -6. -4. -3. -8. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -12. -10. -6. -5. -4. -0. 6. 10. 17. 18. 11. 3. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.8 84.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 17.1% 61.6% 13.7% 8.6% 6.3% 38.7% 18.0% 62.9% Consensus: 5.8% 21.0% 4.7% 2.9% 2.3% 16.2% 6.5% 21.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 51 41 35 31 28 27 31 35 41 40 45 46 40 31 29 31 18HR AGO 70 69 59 53 49 46 45 49 53 59 58 63 64 58 49 47 49 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 56 53 52 56 60 66 65 70 71 65 56 54 56 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 53 52 56 60 66 65 70 71 65 56 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT