* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 63 56 48 49 44 42 40 37 34 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 63 56 48 49 44 42 40 37 34 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 62 59 54 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 8 7 11 15 22 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 6 0 3 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 153 204 216 201 212 224 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 24.4 24.4 21.0 19.3 16.9 13.1 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 103 105 88 84 80 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 91 94 81 80 77 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -54.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.0 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 55 49 52 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 42 42 41 39 35 36 46 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 101 93 95 122 176 227 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 100 58 54 75 99 62 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 9 -1 6 3 -25 -72 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 779 755 685 622 456 840 1379 663 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.5 39.6 41.2 42.7 46.6 50.8 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 59.5 57.7 54.7 51.8 41.8 30.1 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 18 23 27 34 42 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. -40. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -14. -22. -21. -26. -28. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.3 61.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 67 66 63 56 48 49 44 42 40 37 34 31 29 28 27 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 64 57 49 50 45 43 41 38 35 32 30 29 28 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 62 55 47 48 43 41 39 36 33 30 28 27 26 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 50 42 43 38 36 34 31 28 25 23 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT