* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 88 78 68 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 99 77 57 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 97 75 56 43 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 30 35 34 32 39 37 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 2 3 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 250 258 263 266 273 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.2 24.3 23.9 24.8 24.2 24.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 117 101 98 104 99 100 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 104 90 87 91 87 87 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 2 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 41 36 38 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 30 29 27 20 15 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 21 10 -2 51 17 -21 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 50 35 57 40 15 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 19 19 15 9 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 219 112 -29 -153 -266 -369 -473 -658 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.3 33.7 35.0 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 93.4 93.0 92.5 91.9 90.3 88.2 86.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -28. -40. -50. -59. -65. -70. -73. -77. -78. -79. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -16. -21. -29. -31. -32. -31. -28. -25. -22. -19. -16. -14. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -31. -35. -37. -38. -39. -39. -37. -36. -35. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -27. -37. -60. -79. -99.-108.-115.-118.-121.-120.-118.-116.-116.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.5 93.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 847.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -6.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 99 77 57 44 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 82 62 49 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 81 68 56 52 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 82 70 66 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 74 70 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 IN 6HR 105 99 90 84 81 76 72 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT