* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 96 86 75 57 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 102 96 76 58 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 94 83 57 36 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 26 36 36 35 33 41 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 11 2 1 0 2 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 246 241 250 261 257 273 280 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.2 24.7 24.0 24.5 24.0 24.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 127 104 98 101 98 101 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 113 93 87 88 85 87 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 4 5 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 48 43 39 41 47 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 30 28 24 18 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 20 1 -4 48 -30 -10 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 38 49 30 23 44 7 12 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 16 19 14 17 16 13 30 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 336 249 136 -10 -133 -279 -387 -553 -719 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.4 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.8 34.1 35.7 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.4 93.2 92.7 92.3 91.0 89.1 87.5 86.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -26. -37. -48. -57. -63. -68. -71. -74. -76. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -27. -27. -29. -26. -23. -20. -17. -14. -13. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -7. -15. -25. -35. -37. -39. -40. -39. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -19. -30. -48. -68. -86.-105.-112.-116.-118.-117.-115.-113.-113.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.3 93.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 738.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 19( 41) 0( 41) 0( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 102 96 76 58 37 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 98 78 60 39 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 81 63 42 35 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 77 56 49 47 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 65 58 56 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 IN 6HR 105 102 93 87 84 76 69 67 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 IN 12HR 105 102 96 87 81 77 70 68 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40