* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 99 94 88 70 53 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 102 99 94 88 53 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 100 94 87 52 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 24 26 34 32 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 9 13 2 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 219 238 241 239 258 262 277 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.0 24.0 24.3 24.0 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 138 134 125 99 100 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 123 118 111 88 88 86 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -49.8 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 4 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 62 56 52 48 39 44 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 30 31 33 30 24 18 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 1 -1 26 -6 35 -46 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 45 34 33 36 41 43 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 11 19 15 19 16 15 27 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 368 300 217 125 -160 -342 -440 -661 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 31.2 33.4 34.6 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.6 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.5 90.9 89.1 86.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 42 23 19 11 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -29. -38. -45. -50. -54. -57. -61. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -19. -20. -22. -20. -17. -15. -13. -11. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -9. -18. -27. -28. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -6. -12. -30. -47. -65. -82. -87. -91. -93. -93. -90. -88. -88. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.4 93.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 5.4% 3.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 20.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 11( 45) 0( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 0( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 99 94 88 53 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 91 85 50 32 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 85 50 32 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 49 31 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 46 28 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 66 48 42 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 102 99 90 84 80 62 56 55 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27