* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 87 86 77 64 46 30 25 22 20 19 19 19 19 17 V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 87 86 67 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 87 85 82 63 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 15 16 34 30 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 9 10 12 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 204 214 237 238 247 268 272 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 24.4 24.8 24.0 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 138 135 102 104 98 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 127 123 120 91 91 86 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 4 6 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 62 58 54 43 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 34 33 34 34 30 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 20 9 6 20 46 16 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 40 45 33 31 40 38 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 11 17 15 20 14 14 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 370 447 365 325 229 -26 -260 -391 -473 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.4 27.4 30.0 32.3 33.9 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.4 93.0 93.6 93.7 93.8 93.1 91.8 90.1 88.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 13 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 47 48 21 22 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -28. -31. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -14. -23. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -8. -21. -39. -55. -60. -63. -65. -66. -66. -66. -66. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 23.7 92.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 20.3% 15.6% 13.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.2% 12.4% 8.9% 8.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.2% 4.9% 2.4% 4.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 12.5% 9.0% 8.8% 6.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 0( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 29 1( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 88 87 86 67 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 85 84 83 64 37 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 60 33 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 55 28 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 53 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 87 88 79 73 69 42 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29