* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 127 129 129 129 128 129 123 113 98 81 67 54 44 39 38 35 V (KT) LAND 120 127 129 108 99 99 100 94 84 69 41 31 28 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 120 133 139 119 105 112 110 103 91 74 42 31 28 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 9 6 5 7 6 12 20 31 29 33 36 60 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 0 1 3 7 7 11 3 -1 0 0 0 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 81 81 78 97 186 223 231 251 263 254 266 255 262 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.4 29.6 28.8 29.0 28.6 27.4 24.5 24.6 24.0 24.5 23.4 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 168 160 163 148 151 145 129 102 103 99 104 97 89 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 164 154 154 135 134 128 114 90 91 88 92 87 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.2 -49.5 -49.3 -49.2 -49.2 -49.8 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 73 76 73 65 57 48 46 41 41 42 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 29 29 32 36 36 36 33 29 23 16 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 107 102 77 68 36 37 28 49 16 68 38 78 40 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 87 71 48 65 49 47 43 27 41 75 20 17 27 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 -3 -1 10 5 16 19 26 7 2 0 19 48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 272 113 -46 22 206 377 445 251 24 -140 -320 -539 -564 -347 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.8 23.9 25.3 27.3 29.4 31.5 33.5 35.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.8 86.1 87.5 88.8 90.8 92.2 92.8 92.6 92.0 90.9 89.0 86.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 10 8 9 11 11 12 14 16 20 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 105 143 94 45 55 31 56 51 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -0. -9. -19. -29. -40. -49. -56. -63. -69. -75. -76. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -5. -7. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 12. 12. 13. 8. 1. -6. -16. -22. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 3. -7. -22. -39. -53. -66. -76. -81. -82. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.5 83.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 24.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.14 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 69% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 6.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 68.9% 69.4% 56.3% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 61.0% 56.6% 47.5% 38.0% 23.8% 31.7% 11.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 10.2% 8.1% 5.1% 1.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.7% 44.7% 36.3% 26.9% 8.6% 10.8% 3.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 38.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 44( 62) 21( 70) 21( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 23( 72) 16( 76) 6( 78) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 127 129 108 99 99 100 94 84 69 41 31 28 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 120 119 121 100 91 91 92 86 76 61 33 23 20 20 21 22 22 12HR AGO 120 117 116 95 86 86 87 81 71 56 28 18 15 15 16 17 17 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 101 101 102 96 86 71 43 33 30 30 31 32 32 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 101 102 96 86 71 43 33 30 30 31 32 32 IN 6HR 120 127 118 112 109 108 109 103 93 78 50 40 37 37 38 39 39 IN 12HR 120 127 129 120 114 110 111 105 95 80 52 42 39 39 40 41 41