* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 109 112 117 124 128 126 119 109 96 77 64 49 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 95 104 109 112 98 99 103 101 94 84 50 34 29 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 95 107 116 121 107 106 110 110 102 87 51 34 29 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 11 7 4 5 7 14 29 23 30 31 48 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 3 -1 3 3 7 7 5 0 -3 1 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 83 83 89 92 140 230 224 246 241 248 244 255 248 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.9 27.5 25.8 24.2 24.0 24.6 23.6 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 168 158 155 145 149 130 112 100 99 104 98 88 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 164 152 143 130 133 115 99 88 88 92 88 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -50.0 -50.7 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 6 4 7 5 6 3 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 73 73 74 75 67 61 52 51 50 50 48 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 25 27 28 32 35 36 36 35 27 22 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 86 92 92 77 54 33 28 15 15 27 24 29 45 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 47 69 53 38 55 34 36 33 35 39 55 38 36 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 0 7 3 9 16 18 21 19 17 22 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 332 256 123 -41 122 290 457 299 83 -65 -261 -484 -590 -398 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.8 26.7 28.7 30.8 32.9 35.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.3 84.5 85.9 87.3 89.7 91.1 92.0 92.1 91.6 90.7 89.1 86.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 8 10 11 12 13 16 19 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 96 106 136 100 44 32 33 63 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -31. -37. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 13. 1. -6. -14. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 17. 22. 29. 33. 31. 24. 14. 1. -18. -31. -46. -53. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 82.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 24.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 96.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.64 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 4.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 7.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 14.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.5% 77.5% 59.7% 49.5% 35.8% 39.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.5% 58.6% 44.3% 38.3% 33.8% 45.1% 27.1% 13.8% Bayesian: 37.6% 79.6% 67.9% 57.7% 30.2% 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 48.2% 71.9% 57.3% 48.5% 33.3% 30.9% 9.1% 4.6% DTOPS: 58.0% 9.0% 9.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 28( 40) 0( 40) 21( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 22( 43) 0( 43) 32( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 104 109 112 98 99 103 101 94 84 50 34 29 28 29 29 29 18HR AGO 95 94 99 102 88 89 93 91 84 74 40 24 19 18 19 19 19 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 80 81 85 83 76 66 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 71 72 76 74 67 57 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 77 81 79 72 62 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 104 95 89 86 88 92 90 83 73 39 23 18 17 18 18 18 IN 12HR 95 104 109 100 94 90 94 92 85 75 41 25 20 19 20 20 20