* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 97 103 110 121 126 124 121 109 93 75 57 42 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 80 89 97 103 110 118 122 121 118 105 77 46 33 29 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 91 101 110 117 122 121 115 108 93 66 42 31 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 14 10 6 9 7 11 19 32 25 32 46 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 1 2 0 0 6 6 10 2 -2 2 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 65 87 91 112 122 174 215 234 251 263 262 261 256 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.1 29.1 28.2 27.2 24.1 24.2 24.5 23.9 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 173 171 161 153 152 139 126 99 101 103 99 95 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 171 167 152 137 134 122 111 89 90 90 86 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.4 -49.4 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -49.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 2 6 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 72 73 73 75 71 63 56 49 50 43 42 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 25 28 30 32 36 35 33 27 20 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 82 83 90 85 56 29 25 12 37 7 33 17 26 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 40 37 64 59 70 42 40 29 29 42 48 35 28 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -2 0 0 10 3 14 20 37 26 13 32 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 339 333 233 123 86 270 388 382 196 -29 -168 -474 -612 -483 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 22.3 23.5 24.4 25.9 27.6 29.6 32.0 35.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 82.1 83.4 84.6 85.8 88.4 90.4 91.2 92.1 91.8 90.5 89.0 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 8 7 8 10 12 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 122 101 113 138 96 41 34 50 34 8 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. -0. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 15. 12. 4. -7. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 7. 12. 17. 25. 23. 16. 9. 2. -4. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 23. 30. 41. 46. 44. 41. 29. 13. -5. -23. -38. -45. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 80.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 23.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 114.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.75 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 8.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 7.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 19.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.7% 83.5% 62.6% 55.2% 49.3% 55.3% 37.1% 45.8% Logistic: 37.1% 56.9% 40.2% 33.5% 32.0% 50.4% 43.0% 27.9% Bayesian: 36.7% 91.2% 65.6% 58.3% 39.3% 58.8% 7.5% 1.4% Consensus: 44.2% 77.2% 56.1% 49.0% 40.2% 54.9% 29.2% 25.1% DTOPS: 34.0% 83.0% 55.0% 27.0% 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 20( 26) 29( 47) 32( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 44( 49) 10( 54) 71( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 89 97 103 110 118 122 121 118 105 77 46 33 29 28 28 28 18HR AGO 80 79 87 93 100 108 112 111 108 95 67 36 23 19 18 18 18 12HR AGO 80 77 76 82 89 97 101 100 97 84 56 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 77 85 89 88 85 72 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 89 80 74 71 86 90 89 86 73 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 89 97 88 82 78 82 81 78 65 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS