* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 63 76 84 88 85 80 67 52 41 33 26 21 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 53 63 76 84 88 85 80 66 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 71 79 82 77 67 54 34 29 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 0 2 2 2 3 16 18 23 26 35 45 42 32 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 1 1 5 1 0 0 6 4 5 0 2 -1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 349 21 54 268 330 94 230 217 235 230 254 255 255 253 258 260 271 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.9 30.2 29.4 29.1 28.0 27.3 26.6 23.6 24.5 25.0 23.8 23.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 168 173 170 173 160 154 135 126 120 97 103 105 98 96 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 162 170 168 171 151 140 118 109 105 87 91 91 87 87 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 5 3 3 0 2 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 74 73 73 72 70 68 60 59 59 52 46 48 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 16 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 24 21 17 13 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 77 74 76 73 64 55 59 56 37 10 -49 -36 -15 30 42 200 MB DIV 49 63 46 30 44 86 36 47 69 67 34 43 38 56 26 38 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 -2 5 15 10 20 26 43 33 31 0 0 -34 LAND (KM) 168 170 177 255 361 100 148 346 379 271 113 7 -265 -480 -309 -113 247 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.0 18.8 20.9 22.8 24.6 25.7 26.7 28.1 30.2 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.0 79.6 80.7 81.8 84.4 86.7 88.9 90.4 91.0 90.4 89.3 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 13 15 15 14 11 7 6 10 14 14 11 14 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 110 114 125 139 106 107 42 58 27 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -5. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 4. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 28. 41. 49. 53. 50. 45. 32. 17. 6. -2. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 78.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 118.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.78 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 5.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 60.0% 41.7% 21.1% 17.7% 37.7% 43.2% 61.9% Logistic: 14.5% 56.1% 37.9% 10.3% 7.2% 30.8% 51.9% 67.2% Bayesian: 3.5% 50.5% 19.8% 3.8% 1.6% 23.9% 52.4% 42.6% Consensus: 12.1% 55.5% 33.2% 11.7% 8.8% 30.8% 49.2% 57.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 25.0% 19.0% 8.0% 3.0% 9.0% 16.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 48 53 63 76 84 88 85 80 66 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 48 58 71 79 83 80 75 61 33 25 23 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 50 63 71 75 72 67 53 25 17 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 40 53 61 65 62 57 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT