* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYSIX AL262020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 55 69 82 88 89 85 77 63 51 40 28 17 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 55 68 80 86 88 84 76 49 34 29 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 54 63 70 70 66 58 40 31 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 7 3 1 0 7 12 18 17 25 31 36 43 42 57 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 0 4 5 4 8 -2 2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 18 40 84 264 229 207 218 214 224 247 252 249 246 263 267 282 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.0 29.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.1 24.2 24.8 25.1 24.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 172 173 171 157 137 133 127 114 100 105 108 101 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 166 171 172 173 163 142 119 114 109 99 89 93 95 89 79 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 9 7 7 5 4 3 4 2 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 72 72 69 72 71 69 67 60 56 47 39 31 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 18 20 23 24 26 26 25 21 18 14 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 57 71 75 74 59 54 67 73 44 44 10 18 -25 -28 -143 200 MB DIV 54 62 57 30 35 60 58 45 50 77 63 54 58 38 18 -19 -44 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 1 -4 5 9 16 18 29 29 27 16 -1 -15 -31 LAND (KM) 100 100 107 174 282 144 168 334 372 278 193 38 -62 -273 -603 -735 -653 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.8 20.9 23.0 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.8 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.4 79.0 80.0 80.9 83.2 85.8 88.2 89.4 90.2 90.6 90.4 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 9 11 13 16 15 11 7 5 6 9 12 14 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 135 133 135 162 126 105 63 50 27 23 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 6. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -3. -10. -16. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 5. 0. -5. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 25. 39. 52. 58. 59. 55. 47. 33. 21. 10. -2. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 77.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 138.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.91 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.97 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 48.4% 32.7% 14.4% 12.0% 21.5% 38.8% 60.0% Logistic: 8.0% 32.1% 19.1% 5.0% 2.9% 18.0% 37.7% 57.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 42.4% 16.9% 3.6% 0.7% 6.6% 15.1% 24.5% Consensus: 6.4% 41.0% 22.9% 7.7% 5.2% 15.4% 30.5% 47.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 20.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 43 55 68 80 86 88 84 76 49 34 29 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 52 65 77 83 85 81 73 46 31 26 25 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 45 58 70 76 78 74 66 39 24 19 18 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 35 48 60 66 68 64 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT