* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYSIX AL262020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 44 54 70 84 93 96 93 86 77 64 53 48 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 44 54 59 80 89 92 88 82 62 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 47 62 70 72 68 62 47 34 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 14 8 8 4 2 5 11 19 20 20 23 35 34 35 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 1 -2 -2 0 6 3 8 5 1 5 11 SHEAR DIR 57 64 39 17 32 287 173 190 191 200 210 245 245 251 255 240 281 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.5 29.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.1 24.6 24.6 25.1 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 170 170 171 173 173 164 139 133 130 124 102 103 107 104 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 164 163 162 167 173 173 153 124 113 110 107 90 91 93 89 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 6 6 3 5 3 4 2 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 68 70 68 72 72 71 64 62 59 52 45 39 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 14 14 15 18 21 24 26 26 26 25 22 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 51 56 72 74 74 62 64 72 62 46 25 6 -5 71 41 200 MB DIV 57 65 66 58 32 51 91 40 86 49 44 24 58 70 42 20 17 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 3 10 9 5 8 15 37 23 11 27 103 LAND (KM) 91 53 61 100 164 217 0 289 382 290 246 124 -33 -161 -364 -581 -607 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 20.1 22.4 24.1 25.6 26.5 26.9 28.0 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.8 78.7 79.2 79.8 81.7 84.3 86.8 89.1 90.3 90.4 90.4 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 9 14 15 14 10 4 4 7 10 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 117 137 138 156 169 114 125 37 28 23 19 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 19. 18. 17. 15. 9. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 24. 40. 54. 63. 66. 63. 56. 48. 34. 23. 18. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 77.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 143.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.94 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 35.7% 19.9% 12.8% 10.0% 13.2% 37.7% 61.3% Logistic: 6.1% 18.9% 10.7% 2.5% 1.0% 6.1% 22.0% 38.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.3% 6.8% 1.0% 0.4% 5.2% 20.8% 21.2% Consensus: 4.9% 22.6% 12.5% 5.4% 3.8% 8.2% 26.8% 40.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 40 44 54 59 80 89 92 88 82 62 40 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 51 56 77 86 89 85 79 59 37 28 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 45 50 71 80 83 79 73 53 31 22 19 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 39 60 69 72 68 62 42 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT