* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 25 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 26 30 31 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 290 286 293 300 310 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 133 131 131 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 131 126 124 123 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 52 50 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 60 56 44 29 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 15 7 17 26 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1532 1474 1429 1389 1356 1305 1199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.8 46.1 47.1 48.2 50.1 51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 16 25 30 26 17 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 920 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 43.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 9.2% 6.7% 5.4% 3.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.3% 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 40 41 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 28 28 30 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 40 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 26 28 29 29 29 30 32 35 37 38 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT