* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 34 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 34 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 18 21 23 31 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 285 293 300 290 288 299 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 138 139 138 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 137 136 133 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 56 55 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 65 62 48 56 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 45 47 57 34 4 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 2 3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1759 1679 1613 1556 1500 1387 1317 1252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.9 41.4 42.8 44.2 46.7 48.6 50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 12 15 39 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 38.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.3% 9.5% 7.1% 5.6% 8.4% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 2.9% 2.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 34 35 36 38 39 41 43 45 47 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 33 32 33 33 34 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 34 35 37 39 41 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 24 24 25 26 28 29 31 33 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT