* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 36 37 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 36 37 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 19 21 26 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 8 5 3 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 281 277 287 296 286 286 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 137 137 138 140 133 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 136 136 137 136 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 63 60 57 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 68 56 50 53 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 19 28 22 51 13 22 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1801 1731 1656 1593 1543 1444 1388 1330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.8 40.1 41.4 42.8 45.5 47.5 49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 12 10 11 25 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 37.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.3% 11.6% 8.9% 7.5% 9.7% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.1% 5.9% 4.5% 1.4% 2.7% 1.0% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.2% 5.9% 4.5% 2.9% 4.2% 3.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 37 38 37 36 37 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 37 36 35 36 36 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 32 31 32 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 26 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT