* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 46 48 50 51 54 56 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 46 48 50 51 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 36 34 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 11 17 29 32 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 4 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 316 301 298 295 308 304 302 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 136 136 136 135 133 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 140 136 136 134 131 126 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 63 58 54 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 58 57 48 38 46 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 1 3 18 17 23 25 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 5 5 7 0 -3 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1792 1804 1772 1688 1619 1514 1431 1375 1319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.1 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.7 38.2 39.7 41.2 44.0 46.8 49.1 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 15 14 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 13 9 13 28 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 35.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.7% 11.2% 8.5% 7.0% 9.2% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.5% 5.4% 2.6% 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.6% 5.7% 3.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.5% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 46 48 50 51 54 56 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 45 47 49 50 53 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 47 50 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 33 36 38 40 41 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT