* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 37 40 42 43 45 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 37 40 42 43 45 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 36 35 32 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 17 15 23 31 32 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 314 308 301 295 296 297 286 301 306 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 140 136 137 134 131 130 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 140 135 134 131 124 120 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 64 64 63 55 54 52 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 49 57 55 43 48 54 40 18 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 23 3 -6 -2 8 12 14 58 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -1 4 6 6 1 -1 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1772 1815 1817 1791 1704 1597 1521 1472 1433 1423 1344 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.2 36.6 38.1 39.5 42.0 44.7 47.2 48.7 50.0 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 14 10 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 12 15 17 14 10 14 20 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 33.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.8% 11.9% 8.9% 7.5% 9.9% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 11.4% 7.2% 3.4% 1.6% 6.0% 4.3% 4.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 10.7% 6.9% 4.2% 3.0% 5.5% 4.6% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 37 40 42 43 45 48 50 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 35 38 40 41 43 46 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 33 32 35 37 38 40 43 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 29 31 32 34 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT