* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 32 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 20 18 20 18 26 37 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 3 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 260 255 261 260 240 243 239 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.6 28.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 133 135 137 132 130 147 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 109 112 114 112 111 125 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.4 -52.2 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 4 4 3 4 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 48 48 47 46 40 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 12 11 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 7 0 -13 12 -14 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 15 9 1 2 18 5 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 -1 -2 3 1 3 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -40 -52 -42 -47 -12 -27 -152 -236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 30.0 31.2 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.6 96.7 96.3 96.0 94.8 93.5 91.9 90.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 6 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 26 31 26 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -7. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -6. -11. -18. -21. -23. -25. -28. -30. -33. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.6 96.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.7% 8.3% 6.8% 5.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.3% 3.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 2.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 29 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT