* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 34 32 32 29 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 33 31 30 28 31 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 32 31 29 28 30 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 22 23 18 17 18 27 39 45 41 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 1 -2 0 -4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 264 273 264 261 238 240 235 256 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.7 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 130 131 133 131 134 147 123 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 108 107 109 112 112 114 125 104 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -52.5 -53.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 4 3 4 3 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 49 46 45 42 43 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 12 10 11 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 -7 -8 10 1 22 -8 -4 -6 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 11 1 17 16 1 16 7 8 -6 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 6 -1 -4 2 -4 4 0 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 52 23 -6 -14 -22 -17 13 -46 -173 -269 -397 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.3 30.2 31.4 32.8 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.3 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.7 94.5 93.2 91.6 90.2 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 2 5 7 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 25 26 28 35 33 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -11. -18. -22. -25. -27. -31. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. -26. -28. -29. -31. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.1 96.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.2% 10.1% 8.1% 7.2% 9.3% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.7% 4.8% 3.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 33 31 30 28 31 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 34 32 31 29 32 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 34 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 30 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT