* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 40 37 34 35 31 27 21 21 20 19 18 17 18 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 16 21 22 18 17 27 37 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 251 235 240 262 262 253 238 234 231 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 152 149 143 145 153 147 152 155 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 128 124 118 119 128 123 128 130 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -52.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 52 51 48 45 46 43 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 12 10 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 14 8 -14 7 -6 20 -23 -1 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 29 30 20 16 9 5 24 4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 4 7 3 6 -2 3 0 5 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 103 52 12 -27 -45 -51 -21 -69 -164 -219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.6 30.4 31.3 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.4 96.0 96.3 96.7 96.6 95.8 94.6 93.4 92.2 91.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 2 2 5 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 41 33 33 34 30 37 19 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -17. -19. -23. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -14. -18. -24. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.6 94.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.9% 12.3% 9.9% 0.0% 11.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.4% 4.8% 3.7% 0.1% 3.9% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 42 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 36 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 34 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 28 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT