* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 49 45 41 40 38 33 28 23 22 22 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 44 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 16 18 22 20 19 22 37 42 45 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 3 0 -1 -1 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 258 251 242 242 269 259 249 235 234 240 279 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.2 28.7 29.3 28.6 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 151 147 148 155 153 145 156 145 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 130 127 122 121 128 128 122 133 122 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -52.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 1 2 1 4 3 5 3 6 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 51 57 54 52 47 47 43 41 38 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 18 16 12 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 1 -6 11 10 -8 -1 0 9 -26 -7 -34 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 27 22 31 19 16 9 -3 21 -7 -30 -39 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 5 11 5 0 -3 1 3 2 7 13 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 132 79 40 -1 -48 -67 -41 -40 -144 -242 -361 -435 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.6 30.1 31.1 32.5 33.7 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.7 95.3 95.7 96.2 96.4 95.8 95.0 93.7 92.3 90.8 89.6 88.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 3 2 3 5 7 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 50 41 37 39 29 25 17 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. -30. -29. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -12. -17. -22. -27. -28. -28. -29. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.6 94.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.0% 13.7% 11.0% 0.0% 11.8% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 5.5% 5.8% 4.6% 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.2% 6.5% 5.2% 0.2% 4.5% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 51 44 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 42 33 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 39 30 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 33 24 19 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT