* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 50 51 50 47 45 44 42 40 34 30 28 26 26 26 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 50 51 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 48 46 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 17 18 17 21 20 20 22 41 43 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -3 -2 -1 -3 1 0 -2 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 240 243 259 258 239 267 261 251 238 233 232 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 27.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 162 160 156 149 149 159 162 159 154 133 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 138 137 132 124 122 132 136 134 130 112 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -52.2 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 3 1 0 2 1 3 2 4 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 50 53 56 53 46 47 46 46 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 19 17 13 11 10 9 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 10 2 -13 11 -3 -1 -6 5 -17 -7 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 32 28 26 30 25 18 22 -3 19 10 -5 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 15 11 6 8 1 -4 1 2 1 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 266 222 162 107 9 -53 -75 -84 -138 -241 -317 -440 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.1 31.0 32.0 33.2 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.3 93.9 94.5 95.1 95.9 96.2 95.8 94.9 93.6 92.1 90.7 89.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 4 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 42 57 59 46 40 34 18 5 4 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -18. -21. -23. -23. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.1 92.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.8% 10.7% 8.6% 7.7% 10.3% 10.9% 10.3% Logistic: 1.9% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.3% 4.8% 3.5% 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 50 51 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 49 50 49 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 46 45 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT