* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 52 52 51 49 46 46 44 42 36 31 27 26 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 52 52 51 49 46 41 34 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 49 48 46 44 43 43 44 33 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 13 11 12 12 14 14 16 23 33 39 40 38 43 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 5 -2 0 -3 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 219 244 239 242 257 255 268 260 275 239 233 231 245 251 252 250 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 167 169 169 165 161 158 161 161 161 158 151 150 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 141 145 143 139 134 130 133 133 134 132 126 123 124 126 125 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 47 48 48 49 52 57 57 56 51 48 45 44 43 41 35 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 20 17 15 12 9 7 7 6 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 35 25 20 28 10 2 -11 -1 -24 3 -25 0 -26 -34 -94 4 200 MB DIV 47 36 42 36 41 38 20 24 6 20 27 38 36 14 19 13 54 700-850 TADV 7 10 6 0 9 7 4 5 1 10 4 12 6 10 6 12 15 LAND (KM) 336 330 323 291 243 166 119 37 39 26 -2 -25 -64 -118 -164 -275 -412 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.0 93.6 94.1 94.9 95.6 96.1 95.6 95.0 94.4 93.4 92.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 48 47 47 46 43 37 37 35 24 13 8 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -23. -25. -24. -25. -26. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -8. -14. -19. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.5 92.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.7% 11.9% 9.8% 9.0% 11.7% 12.7% 14.3% Logistic: 2.1% 6.3% 5.3% 6.4% 1.4% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.7% 5.7% 5.4% 3.5% 5.2% 4.4% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 53 52 52 51 49 46 41 34 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 52 51 51 50 48 45 40 33 29 27 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 47 47 46 44 41 36 29 25 23 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 40 39 37 34 29 22 18 16 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT