* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 52 51 50 48 46 42 37 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 52 44 36 36 34 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 48 46 45 44 38 32 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 21 18 15 15 14 15 13 15 17 34 37 39 26 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 -1 -2 1 -4 0 -3 1 -2 2 2 -1 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 230 227 226 246 250 231 253 227 252 239 233 230 230 231 258 244 266 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 159 163 165 157 153 149 152 153 151 162 159 156 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 132 134 137 139 131 126 123 125 128 127 135 130 127 134 136 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 2 1 3 0 2 1 3 1 4 2 5 2 6 0 700-500 MB RH 59 54 49 47 51 54 59 59 57 52 53 53 52 47 43 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 21 21 20 19 16 14 13 12 11 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 32 18 14 6 -16 14 -18 -10 -23 -5 -11 12 19 -53 -117 200 MB DIV 55 39 31 23 22 33 30 44 13 16 17 35 22 0 -36 -19 -6 700-850 TADV 5 9 16 11 5 11 6 7 0 -2 0 6 9 -2 0 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 332 308 282 268 238 160 103 38 -7 -12 6 11 -64 -108 -124 -241 -491 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.8 93.1 93.5 93.9 94.8 95.6 96.2 96.4 95.9 95.0 93.9 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 6 6 4 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 38 46 58 72 40 34 38 45 50 29 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -15. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.5 92.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.6% 11.9% 9.6% 8.6% 11.4% 12.6% 14.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 4.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 52 52 53 52 44 36 36 34 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 51 51 52 51 43 35 35 33 27 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 47 48 47 39 31 31 29 23 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 41 40 32 24 24 22 16 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT