* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 67 69 71 71 69 64 57 54 52 48 43 40 38 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 65 67 69 71 71 69 64 57 54 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 66 68 67 66 66 65 63 61 60 41 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 19 21 14 14 11 13 13 15 18 32 41 45 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 3 0 -3 -1 -4 2 -5 0 -2 2 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 211 234 223 214 214 237 222 239 213 237 234 250 238 228 232 260 260 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.2 29.7 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 165 162 161 165 167 165 158 158 158 163 169 171 164 141 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 149 140 136 135 140 140 139 131 129 130 134 143 149 139 117 111 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 1 3 0 2 1 3 2 5 3 6 2 7 700-500 MB RH 68 63 59 56 52 55 58 64 65 64 59 56 51 46 43 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 23 22 21 21 20 19 16 13 12 13 15 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 26 35 51 37 18 18 -4 16 -18 -7 -21 7 0 17 -6 -96 200 MB DIV 47 40 41 39 36 23 47 33 48 25 7 14 26 0 5 -41 -25 700-850 TADV 1 10 6 13 13 4 13 9 6 2 -1 2 3 1 -8 3 0 LAND (KM) 476 410 344 332 317 298 218 172 91 66 44 1 -37 -61 -116 -183 -316 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.3 92.2 92.4 92.6 93.5 94.4 95.3 95.9 95.9 95.8 95.5 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 5 10 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 93 71 49 44 41 51 76 67 36 36 39 52 30 5 5 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 338 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -12. -10. -12. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 14. 7. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.1 92.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 45.0% 28.1% 13.0% 11.5% 13.5% 35.2% 35.2% Logistic: 17.1% 29.3% 21.6% 9.7% 2.9% 10.8% 3.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 25.2% 16.9% 7.7% 4.8% 8.2% 13.1% 11.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 60 65 67 69 71 71 69 64 57 54 38 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 54 59 61 63 65 65 63 58 51 48 32 25 22 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 53 55 57 57 55 50 43 40 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 44 46 46 44 39 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT