* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 59 67 68 66 61 60 56 55 52 51 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 59 67 68 66 61 60 56 55 52 51 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 46 47 47 47 48 50 52 54 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 14 13 12 15 10 11 5 7 8 8 15 25 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 4 5 -1 0 -4 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 196 187 184 195 214 203 223 201 232 184 172 158 185 201 215 222 247 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 168 168 168 164 160 158 155 158 162 169 163 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 155 152 148 144 143 143 138 134 131 127 131 136 144 141 137 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 72 68 59 54 59 62 68 61 61 56 59 57 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 20 19 21 20 17 14 14 12 12 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 39 40 32 54 33 43 19 22 3 10 -11 1 -15 5 -41 200 MB DIV 60 60 71 38 29 51 34 47 43 15 35 21 19 37 45 31 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 2 13 15 14 12 6 4 0 3 3 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 328 369 409 413 414 415 341 260 180 132 109 105 127 182 197 166 20 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.0 93.8 93.5 93.3 93.1 93.8 94.6 95.4 95.9 96.2 96.3 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 3 2 1 0 1 3 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 88 91 87 83 87 83 66 66 53 41 34 32 36 54 79 45 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 10. 7. 3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 29. 37. 38. 36. 31. 30. 26. 25. 22. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.6 94.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 87.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.57 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.7% 15.0% 10.5% 9.8% 11.9% 14.5% 48.3% Logistic: 9.3% 32.9% 18.4% 8.1% 3.9% 10.4% 7.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 5.8% 19.4% 11.4% 6.3% 4.7% 7.6% 7.4% 16.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 42 52 59 67 68 66 61 60 56 55 52 51 46 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 49 56 64 65 63 58 57 53 52 49 48 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 43 50 58 59 57 52 51 47 46 43 42 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 40 48 49 47 42 41 37 36 33 32 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT