* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO AL222020 09/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 47 57 66 74 77 77 76 76 72 65 62 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 47 57 66 74 77 77 76 76 72 65 62 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 54 58 60 62 62 61 60 61 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 10 12 9 13 13 14 6 6 1 6 7 9 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 3 1 5 -3 -1 -3 3 3 4 -4 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 167 191 183 177 185 220 207 219 208 222 172 144 121 122 198 220 220 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 169 168 167 168 168 166 164 162 156 156 164 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 159 158 153 146 143 142 143 139 137 138 132 131 140 145 143 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 4 6 2 4 1 3 2 5 4 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 76 80 79 76 72 64 56 57 59 67 65 64 60 60 63 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 12 13 13 16 18 20 20 20 20 21 19 14 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 40 44 42 31 50 36 31 9 29 7 13 5 14 3 11 200 MB DIV 56 54 57 60 46 35 42 29 53 36 48 7 17 -7 36 30 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 11 6 13 6 5 5 6 0 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 313 340 373 431 445 434 423 380 290 230 190 144 101 110 165 231 291 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.1 93.9 93.5 93.2 93.0 93.0 93.4 94.3 94.9 95.3 95.8 96.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 5 4 2 3 4 2 2 3 2 1 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 84 88 93 87 82 90 80 67 65 62 56 48 36 37 58 79 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 7. -0. -2. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 17. 27. 36. 44. 47. 47. 46. 46. 42. 35. 32. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 94.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.57 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 35.5% 21.3% 12.2% 11.5% 13.1% 19.2% 42.8% Logistic: 8.8% 35.6% 20.1% 11.7% 5.7% 16.5% 17.3% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 12.0% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% Consensus: 6.0% 27.7% 14.8% 8.5% 5.9% 10.1% 12.5% 16.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 TWENTYTWO 09/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 43 47 57 66 74 77 77 76 76 72 65 62 61 62 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 53 62 70 73 73 72 72 68 61 58 57 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 46 55 63 66 66 65 65 61 54 51 50 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 43 51 54 54 53 53 49 42 39 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT