* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 20 16 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 320 325 329 331 276 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 136 140 143 143 138 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 116 120 123 125 124 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 37 33 32 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -119 -124 -140 -144 -128 -82 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -43 -41 -46 -32 -9 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -13 -9 -4 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1967 1910 1853 1790 1728 1525 1263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.8 24.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 52.7 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 25 30 31 26 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.0 49.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 1.9% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 47 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 25 28 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 19 22 24 26 27 28 29 31 34 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT