* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 28 28 24 17 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 1 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 299 301 313 331 357 11 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 132 133 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 110 111 112 115 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 45 41 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -97 -105 -114 -124 -137 -101 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -14 -12 -29 -46 -37 -34 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -5 -7 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2061 2039 1993 1948 1829 1691 1535 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.0 48.3 48.7 49.1 50.1 51.3 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 20 25 33 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.2 47.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.1% 5.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 23 25 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 33 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 17 19 21 22 23 24 24 25 26 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT