* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 26 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 26 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 28 29 30 24 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 4 5 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 280 285 299 303 325 349 353 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 130 131 133 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 110 109 109 112 115 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 48 48 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -83 -87 -101 -110 -133 -141 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 5 -14 -16 -18 -46 -30 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 1 0 -4 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2093 2077 2063 2045 2029 1943 1829 1706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.4 47.8 48.2 48.4 48.7 49.5 50.5 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 17 17 25 35 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 47.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.6% 6.7% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.4% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 26 26 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 25 25 28 28 28 28 27 27 28 29 30 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 21 21 24 24 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT