* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 24 24 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 24 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 27 29 27 22 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 1 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 285 279 287 300 313 334 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 128 127 126 130 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 110 107 106 109 117 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 49 50 46 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -75 -86 -95 -105 -126 -140 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 9 8 -13 -22 -43 -48 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 5 4 2 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2121 2101 2084 2069 2055 2006 1897 1736 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.3 47.8 48.1 48.4 48.9 49.9 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 2 4 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 12 12 16 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 46.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.0% 7.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 24 24 26 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 24 24 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 22 21 21 21 20 20 21 21 21 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT