* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 28 27 30 33 38 39 40 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 28 27 30 33 38 39 40 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 27 27 25 23 22 21 22 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 19 19 25 29 25 18 8 7 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 7 4 5 0 0 -3 2 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 301 292 294 292 287 305 317 345 349 323 305 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 128 129 129 128 126 130 136 137 138 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 115 114 113 109 105 111 118 120 121 120 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 49 50 52 51 45 41 38 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -17 -13 -37 -73 -97 -110 -119 -129 -109 -90 -64 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 18 -12 0 5 -11 -34 -49 -27 -16 -4 -14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 8 6 4 4 0 -4 -5 -3 -5 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2179 2231 2194 2159 2129 2093 2089 2007 1879 1715 1536 1377 1255 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.1 27.0 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.8 45.6 46.2 46.8 47.6 47.8 48.5 49.7 51.2 52.8 54.3 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 7 4 2 5 6 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 15 16 15 14 13 12 15 34 26 25 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 3. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.8 44.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.4% 9.4% 7.6% 6.3% 8.2% 5.9% 4.5% Logistic: 1.6% 4.1% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.5% 4.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 28 27 30 33 38 39 40 41 42 45 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 28 27 30 33 38 39 40 41 42 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 27 30 35 36 37 38 39 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 20 23 28 29 30 31 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT