* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 36 36 33 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 36 36 33 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 38 37 34 32 30 30 32 36 40 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 14 17 19 32 25 22 11 6 8 13 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 3 7 4 2 0 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 304 302 294 296 283 297 307 326 4 320 317 270 273 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 127 129 129 130 126 127 132 139 137 141 138 139 141 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 116 116 114 112 105 107 113 121 119 124 121 121 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 49 50 53 52 49 46 38 36 35 38 41 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 5 -11 -8 -30 -86 -94 -111 -122 -127 -94 -83 -8 26 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 5 16 -6 -2 18 -23 -45 -46 -9 -32 -6 17 36 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 7 6 2 3 -1 -4 -1 -6 -1 -5 0 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2156 2181 2212 2179 2138 2098 2102 2071 1971 1835 1685 1517 1353 1236 1168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.9 45.0 45.7 46.4 47.4 47.7 48.0 48.9 50.2 51.6 53.2 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 9 6 2 3 5 7 7 7 7 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 17 17 15 13 12 12 19 41 24 32 30 24 23 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 42.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.4% 10.8% 8.6% 7.3% 9.5% 8.3% 6.6% Logistic: 3.3% 11.3% 8.2% 2.0% 0.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.6% 6.3% 3.5% 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 38 36 36 33 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 51 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 35 35 32 34 37 39 42 43 47 48 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 31 31 28 30 33 35 38 39 43 44 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 24 21 23 26 28 31 32 36 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT