* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 42 41 40 42 42 43 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 42 41 40 42 42 43 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 41 42 41 38 36 35 36 38 41 43 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 7 11 19 26 31 22 15 10 13 11 18 17 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 0 5 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 185 299 318 321 295 294 287 303 311 347 9 339 322 290 268 268 239 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 122 126 129 129 128 127 130 137 138 137 138 135 136 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 112 114 117 114 109 106 111 117 119 121 121 115 115 124 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 47 49 51 54 53 47 42 38 39 40 43 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 29 4 -7 -2 -51 -93 -90 -104 -115 -108 -76 -64 -25 9 12 17 200 MB DIV 1 2 5 7 -10 6 6 -26 -38 -29 -22 -3 -13 8 23 4 -2 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -2 0 4 1 4 0 -5 -10 -2 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2128 2133 2150 2192 2163 2070 2093 2079 1989 1890 1771 1597 1391 1295 1280 1192 989 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 43.0 44.2 45.0 45.8 47.3 47.6 47.8 48.8 49.8 50.8 52.3 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 8 4 3 4 5 6 8 7 3 2 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 7 17 18 13 13 12 17 36 35 21 31 25 25 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 41.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.9% 13.4% 11.0% 9.9% 11.2% 10.0% 7.6% Logistic: 7.8% 30.3% 25.8% 9.5% 3.8% 7.1% 2.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 16.6% 13.2% 6.8% 4.6% 6.1% 4.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 42 41 40 42 42 43 44 45 47 48 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 39 38 40 40 41 42 43 45 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 36 36 35 34 36 36 37 38 39 41 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 29 29 28 27 29 29 30 31 32 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT