* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 34 31 32 34 33 35 37 38 41 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 34 31 32 34 33 35 37 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 34 36 36 35 32 29 27 26 27 29 32 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 10 9 19 23 36 28 22 14 9 8 14 14 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -1 0 5 6 3 3 1 0 2 1 -5 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 125 203 289 305 314 293 289 297 310 333 2 351 328 297 290 286 294 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 119 119 125 129 128 126 126 128 132 139 140 145 141 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 110 110 114 115 110 105 105 109 113 122 122 123 118 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 48 47 52 56 56 49 46 40 38 36 38 40 42 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 22 -1 -14 -34 -96 -98 -112 -110 -108 -98 -88 -78 -42 14 46 200 MB DIV 0 -5 -6 -2 0 -7 22 -32 -42 -76 -20 -26 17 -19 30 21 21 700-850 TADV 3 6 0 0 -2 10 4 6 0 -3 -7 -3 -6 -3 -6 -11 -8 LAND (KM) 2156 2135 2123 2151 2187 2147 2127 2161 2129 2079 1988 1844 1662 1557 1515 1484 1454 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.4 23.2 25.0 26.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.7 42.8 43.7 44.7 46.2 46.9 46.9 47.2 47.6 48.5 50.1 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 9 5 2 2 3 5 9 8 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 3 3 13 16 14 14 13 13 16 40 24 35 27 24 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -3. -1. -2. -0. 2. 3. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 40.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.9% 10.6% 8.5% 7.6% 9.8% 9.2% 6.7% Logistic: 3.2% 13.5% 11.3% 3.1% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 9.2% 7.3% 3.9% 2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 34 31 32 34 33 35 37 38 41 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 34 31 32 34 33 35 37 38 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 35 33 31 28 29 31 30 32 34 35 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 28 26 24 21 22 24 23 25 27 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT