* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 43 47 48 48 43 43 42 40 38 36 33 29 31 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 43 47 48 48 43 43 42 40 38 36 33 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 40 42 46 49 49 47 43 40 36 33 33 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 3 2 10 14 25 31 34 24 22 12 16 19 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 3 8 4 6 9 4 2 3 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 92 77 91 213 298 292 294 287 298 310 345 23 37 67 90 115 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.5 26.4 26.2 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 115 119 118 116 125 128 129 131 129 132 136 138 139 138 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 106 110 109 107 113 114 111 110 109 113 116 116 116 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 56 53 53 55 57 61 58 51 47 43 41 40 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 9 11 12 10 8 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 57 59 46 11 -14 -52 -66 -83 -98 -111 -120 -129 -122 -130 -112 200 MB DIV 17 7 -6 -11 -19 -12 -7 0 -12 -22 -28 -40 -12 -15 -25 -4 0 700-850 TADV 5 2 -1 0 5 3 9 13 19 14 6 2 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2109 2202 2205 2171 2141 2145 2207 2150 2131 2134 2102 2027 1893 1820 1818 1848 1858 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 22.0 23.5 25.1 26.4 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 38.1 39.0 40.1 41.1 43.1 44.9 46.2 46.9 47.2 47.7 48.6 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 5 3 3 6 6 4 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 9 1 2 1 1 15 17 17 16 14 16 28 26 27 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 37.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.8% 12.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 21.9% 15.8% 5.4% 3.0% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 12.7% 9.3% 5.1% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 42 43 47 48 48 43 43 42 40 38 36 33 29 31 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 42 46 47 47 42 42 41 39 37 35 32 28 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 44 44 39 39 38 36 34 32 29 25 27 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 36 36 31 31 30 28 26 24 21 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT