* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 58 58 57 56 54 53 49 46 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 58 58 57 56 54 53 49 46 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 62 65 66 65 62 58 54 50 48 46 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 3 5 3 7 15 22 28 22 18 18 16 9 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 3 3 5 8 6 5 3 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 107 101 96 103 257 309 300 297 297 320 339 29 36 77 79 116 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.7 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 117 116 121 117 124 129 133 133 135 138 137 133 131 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 107 112 109 114 117 118 115 114 115 113 111 109 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 59 57 53 51 53 59 56 51 46 41 40 35 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 60 52 60 31 -7 -19 -36 -67 -82 -108 -120 -128 -120 -124 -69 200 MB DIV 16 15 -6 -19 -14 -17 -3 -18 9 -15 -33 -35 -16 -31 -5 -7 8 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 0 -1 2 -1 10 5 11 5 -3 -2 -6 0 7 10 LAND (KM) 2031 2130 2217 2173 2126 2093 2117 2086 2000 1972 1969 1976 1913 1820 1707 1619 1535 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.7 27.1 28.2 29.0 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.3 40.4 42.5 44.7 46.5 48.0 49.0 49.7 50.2 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 7 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 8 1 4 2 13 17 14 20 20 21 18 14 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 36.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.3% 14.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 35.6% 24.2% 7.2% 4.4% 18.3% 15.0% 13.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 8.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% Consensus: 7.5% 21.3% 13.5% 6.5% 1.6% 6.6% 5.2% 4.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 52 54 57 58 58 57 56 54 53 49 46 44 44 44 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 53 54 54 53 52 50 49 45 42 40 40 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 49 49 48 47 45 44 40 37 35 35 35 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 41 41 40 39 37 36 32 29 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT