* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 55 59 61 60 57 53 48 49 46 44 40 37 38 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 53 55 59 61 60 57 53 48 49 46 44 40 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 57 63 65 66 64 60 55 51 47 43 41 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 5 4 0 11 17 29 30 33 23 23 16 19 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 0 1 2 3 1 2 10 0 -3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 95 94 120 109 96 182 312 295 308 302 310 333 360 20 33 43 72 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.0 27.0 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 117 120 119 114 125 132 134 133 139 141 138 135 132 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 106 108 111 110 105 113 118 117 114 117 118 114 113 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -52.3 -51.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 64 60 56 55 57 62 62 57 52 45 42 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 12 10 9 6 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 66 63 62 60 53 6 -19 -52 -67 -91 -97 -121 -105 -124 -111 -103 200 MB DIV 8 19 14 2 -19 -8 -17 -2 4 -10 -15 -22 -34 -20 -22 -31 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -2 5 2 0 3 0 13 12 14 11 1 -3 -6 -6 3 4 LAND (KM) 1944 2031 2119 2217 2175 2104 2125 2187 2134 2103 2099 2066 1981 1897 1807 1658 1473 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.5 21.9 23.4 25.2 26.6 27.7 28.4 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.3 37.2 38.2 39.2 41.4 43.3 45.1 46.4 47.3 47.9 48.7 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 5 4 2 0 16 20 16 14 18 24 21 15 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. -13. -16. -17. -21. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 16. 15. 12. 8. 3. 4. 1. -1. -5. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 35.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 26.5% 19.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 38.8% 25.5% 8.3% 6.1% 29.7% 20.2% 10.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 15.9% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% Consensus: 10.7% 27.1% 16.7% 7.7% 2.2% 11.7% 7.2% 3.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 51 53 55 59 61 60 57 53 48 49 46 44 40 37 38 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 54 56 55 52 48 43 44 41 39 35 32 33 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 49 51 50 47 43 38 39 36 34 30 27 28 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 43 42 39 35 30 31 28 26 22 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT