* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 46 50 52 53 50 49 50 48 48 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 46 50 52 53 50 49 50 48 48 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 45 49 52 54 53 51 48 44 42 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 11 6 1 9 14 25 26 34 24 18 12 13 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 0 3 4 6 8 8 2 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 97 91 100 113 111 100 297 297 304 312 305 320 335 18 15 18 53 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.0 26.5 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 115 115 117 122 114 119 129 133 133 133 137 139 140 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 106 106 108 114 105 110 116 116 113 113 115 114 116 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 65 64 59 57 56 62 62 60 58 54 49 46 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 12 14 13 13 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 65 64 63 70 37 -11 -37 -75 -87 -104 -115 -119 -110 -115 -121 200 MB DIV 16 14 22 20 2 -5 -5 -18 8 12 -17 -22 -51 -12 -32 -26 -28 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -2 3 2 0 3 2 16 15 29 17 8 3 -5 -4 7 LAND (KM) 1828 1940 2042 2127 2205 2125 2119 2159 2174 2161 2228 2140 2068 2034 2020 1964 1870 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.9 21.2 22.6 24.6 26.2 27.4 28.1 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.3 36.4 37.3 38.1 40.3 42.2 44.0 45.8 46.5 46.3 46.8 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 9 11 11 12 11 7 5 5 5 2 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 2 5 4 0 4 19 19 18 16 17 21 23 24 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -10. -13. -12. -11. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 15. 14. 15. 13. 13. 14. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.1 34.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.89 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.9% 12.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 24.6% 12.6% 3.0% 2.5% 18.6% 21.3% 12.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% Consensus: 5.0% 15.0% 8.6% 4.1% 0.8% 6.5% 7.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 46 50 52 53 50 49 50 48 48 49 48 46 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 43 47 49 50 47 46 47 45 45 46 45 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 38 42 44 45 42 41 42 40 40 41 40 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 35 37 38 35 34 35 33 33 34 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT