* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 55 54 51 50 48 44 41 39 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 55 54 51 50 48 44 41 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 44 49 52 54 53 51 48 44 40 38 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 15 14 4 4 11 19 29 29 32 18 20 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -6 -8 -8 -1 1 6 5 7 6 3 7 3 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 91 93 104 116 148 295 322 299 312 308 312 321 349 43 33 46 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.3 26.2 27.1 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 115 116 116 119 117 117 126 132 133 133 135 140 142 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 107 107 107 110 108 107 114 116 114 112 113 118 119 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 67 65 60 56 55 60 63 63 61 56 52 52 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 15 15 14 15 14 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 106 96 88 70 64 70 60 6 -13 -42 -61 -73 -95 -118 -128 -135 -122 200 MB DIV 17 13 10 14 20 -20 0 -20 10 -1 -1 -7 -17 -41 -16 -9 -14 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 3 6 5 -1 16 31 23 17 0 -3 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1741 1845 1944 2044 2144 2192 2152 2174 2277 2223 2202 2147 2082 2030 1988 1906 1866 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.3 24.4 26.1 27.2 28.0 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.4 35.4 36.4 37.4 39.2 41.2 43.1 44.7 45.8 46.5 47.0 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 8 5 4 4 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 12 16 18 15 15 19 24 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 19. 20. 19. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 33.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.4% 10.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 19.3% 9.9% 2.9% 2.3% 11.5% 14.4% 6.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% Consensus: 4.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.6% 0.8% 3.9% 5.1% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 55 54 51 50 48 44 41 39 40 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 50 52 53 52 49 48 46 42 39 37 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 45 47 48 47 44 43 41 37 34 32 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 37 39 40 39 36 35 33 29 26 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT