* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 44 48 51 53 51 50 47 45 45 39 35 34 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 44 48 51 53 51 50 47 45 45 39 35 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 54 53 52 49 45 41 36 33 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 10 12 4 9 18 21 34 33 41 25 24 24 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 -4 -5 -2 0 3 6 4 3 0 7 7 2 8 0 SHEAR DIR 68 82 79 88 106 147 274 291 295 300 307 302 313 347 7 30 343 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.4 27.2 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 114 113 112 115 118 118 127 132 133 132 131 132 134 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 107 105 104 104 106 109 109 114 116 114 110 108 109 111 116 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 65 66 59 62 63 67 66 62 57 50 45 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 18 17 16 16 14 14 14 14 15 13 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 112 110 97 91 68 62 62 34 -12 -30 -52 -73 -71 -86 -83 -86 -57 200 MB DIV 18 16 4 2 4 -4 -15 -4 13 -5 12 -17 -24 -40 -37 -30 15 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 1 0 6 6 5 12 43 21 21 -2 -18 -15 -14 -14 LAND (KM) 1605 1721 1828 1920 2012 2209 2234 2271 2372 2357 2228 2134 2080 2055 2039 2071 2011 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.0 21.1 22.7 24.6 26.4 27.8 28.6 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.2 38.2 40.2 42.0 43.7 44.5 44.7 45.0 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 8 6 3 2 3 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 1 0 4 1 2 11 13 15 19 20 19 17 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -17. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 16. 15. 12. 10. 10. 4. -0. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 32.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.86 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.4% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 17.9% 9.5% 2.2% 1.3% 10.5% 9.2% 3.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.7% 13.6% 7.9% 0.8% 0.5% 3.7% 3.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 41 44 48 51 53 51 50 47 45 45 39 35 34 37 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 40 44 47 49 47 46 43 41 41 35 31 30 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 39 42 44 42 41 38 36 36 30 26 25 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 35 37 35 34 31 29 29 23 19 18 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT