* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 44 49 49 48 44 40 42 42 37 32 27 26 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 44 49 49 48 44 40 42 42 37 32 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 44 47 46 43 40 38 35 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 8 10 20 30 35 43 31 38 33 38 42 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 -1 -5 1 4 8 4 -1 -1 -4 1 2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 77 61 59 57 61 132 244 271 290 289 302 301 308 306 339 356 348 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.1 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 117 116 119 119 118 116 132 134 134 133 128 124 122 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 111 109 112 111 109 106 120 118 114 112 107 103 102 103 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 65 66 67 65 62 68 65 61 56 50 50 51 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 15 16 14 12 11 10 13 14 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 104 114 119 108 97 86 60 38 15 -27 -79 -79 -80 -46 -38 -54 -81 200 MB DIV 5 3 16 12 -3 -10 -14 20 6 20 -15 26 -30 -24 -62 -32 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 1 9 20 18 24 21 4 4 2 -6 -12 -16 LAND (KM) 1351 1506 1661 1783 1893 2107 2311 2391 2521 2293 2142 2106 2168 2235 2294 2281 2203 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.9 21.4 23.2 25.5 27.7 29.4 30.2 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.3 32.7 33.8 35.0 37.2 39.3 40.7 42.4 43.0 42.3 41.2 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 1 1 5 7 2 0 21 14 12 15 9 6 5 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -8. -13. -18. -22. -27. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -13. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 19. 18. 14. 10. 12. 12. 7. 2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 29.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.5% 13.0% 10.4% 8.9% 11.1% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 17.1% 12.4% 7.0% 3.6% 16.3% 13.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 2.6% 6.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 6.5% 13.6% 9.3% 6.0% 4.3% 9.6% 8.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 44 49 49 48 44 40 42 42 37 32 27 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 45 45 44 40 36 38 38 33 28 23 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 40 40 39 35 31 33 33 28 23 18 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 32 31 27 23 25 25 20 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT